I work for a small consultancy. The other day I decided to switch our business CRM, pretty much on a whim. This is not a huge task for us: I like to say that we’re built like a steakhouse but we handle like a bistro1.
While I was working through this, I was thinking about the idea that writing code is cheap now and idly wondering about whether I should give up on the migration and just vibe-code our very own bespoke CRM.
But then I thought: fuck no, why would I want to spend what would undoubtedly be significantly less time than before — but still a non-insignificant amount — rolling my own CRM, only to end up with something that would likely be average at best, when instead I could take advantage of Attio’s extensive experience in the domain of CRMs for the princely sum of £29/user/mo? With updates and new features arriving all the time and no need to think about what other features I don’t know about that I might want? Or, you know, uptime, or data protection?
I also remembered that at one point we rolled our own CRM with Notion and it was… not good. It turns out we didn’t know much about how to make more than a simulacrum of a CRM. These are tools that look smooth and obvious from the outside but are surprisingly warty on the inside. It’s pretty easy to chuck a basic data model together but harder to put a UI on top that helps lead users to useful actions.
Anyway. This post is not meant to be an ad for Attio. I’m really just pushing against the idea that SaaS is basically dead now because soon everyone will be knitting all of their own software.
I don’t particularly want to replace my personal and business stacks with software I’ve written, because then I’d have to look after it. It sounds a bit like having puppies. Lots and lots of puppies.
How long would it take to make a dent in the average person’s world of software? Attempting to do this for my stack would only really be feasible by diving feet first into multi-agent workforces. I spend most of my days trying to politely coerce groups of people into taking useful action. I get the sense that multi-agent would feel like this, but for my entire life and with no opportunity to go for a drink with the entities I’m attempting to politely coerce and who are invariably trying to do the same to me.
So, assuming we don’t end up with a couple of extra notches of implausibly magical AI capability in the near future, my bet is that the vast majority of humans and organisations - who would likely not have the time, capability or energy to do this even if they really wanted to2 - will not be stampeding away from existing software models just yet.
Will single-use and glue tools take a hit? Absolutely. Will there be more competition in areas where there’s not much of a moat? Of course: already happening. Is there a chance that we might be able to break free of the centralised SaaS model and into ubiquitous local-first software? That would be lovely. But I don’t think this is the moment where software becomes completely fungible.
On the other hand, I do want to spend more time getting to grips with new tools, use them to make cool stuff and maybe sometimes do that with the safety off just to see what will happen. I’m no refusenik. I do have some empathy for those that are, but I came of age during the birth of cyberpunk so I am already hardwired (hah) to believe that all technology is essentially brilliant and terrible at the same time.
But if it’s for the sheer joy of creating things, then I’ll build something more fun, more useful (to me, to my business or our clients) and honestly just plain weirder than most software I pay for. Or maybe I’ll just go and hang out with my kid and play Minecraft.
Footnotes
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…because Zapp Brannigan lives in my head rent free. But we’re actually more of a food truck right now. ↩
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This comment from a Hacker News thread on Have a fucking website pretty much boils down to “all you have to do if you want a small business website is get a VPS with an nginx image pre-installed then write some plaintext and deploy it”. Seriously?
“But… but… but AI can tell you how to do all of this!”
Yes, AI can also tell you how to swim, or fly a helicopter3. Good luck, let me know how you get on. ↩
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OK, I will admit that Claude or Codex can do a lot more of the making of the websites without much (or any) user intervention. They could probably do a passable job of flying a helicopter for you, too. The risk/reward is different but again, let me know how you get on. ↩